South Asia is no stranger to turbulence, but 2025 delivered a level of disruption that felt structural rather than cyclical. A cascade of political crises, military escalation, climate disasters, and global economic shocks converged to push the region toward what many analysts now call a “polycrisis.” Long‑standing assumptions — about governance, trade, and strategic stability — cracked under pressure. And yet, despite the scale of the upheaval, South Asian elites struggled to articulate a new path forward.
🔥 Mass Politics Returns — but Transformation Lags Behind
For the second consecutive year, mass protests toppled a government. In Nepal, youth‑driven demonstrations in September forced Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli to resign. The grievances were familiar: corruption, tone‑deaf leadership, rising living costs, and a political system that offered little real participation.
This unrest echoed earlier movements in Sri Lanka (2022) and Bangladesh (2024), all led by digitally connected young people frustrated with entrenched elites. But while these uprisings succeeded in removing leaders, they have not yet produced durable institutional reform. Bangladesh, more than a year after Sheikh Hasina’s departure, remains mired in opaque party structures, patronage, and political violence. New student‑led groups are emerging, but their reach remains limited to urban centers.
The gap between mobilization and meaningful political renewal is widening — and public cynicism is deepening ahead of pivotal 2026 elections in Nepal and Bangladesh.
⚔️ India–Pakistan: The Most Dangerous Crisis in Decades
Domestic instability was only one axis of turmoil. In May, India and Pakistan engaged in their most serious military confrontation in years, involving missile strikes, expanded target lists, and open nuclear signaling. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire eventually halted the escalation, but the crisis fundamentally altered regional risk perceptions.
India signaled a doctrinal shift: major terrorist attacks would now be treated as acts of war, with responses unconstrained by nuclear considerations. Water security also entered the strategic equation, with Indian media hinting at the potential use of the Indus Waters Treaty as leverage — a chilling prospect for Pakistan’s agriculture‑dependent economy.
The episode revived old questions about South Asia’s crisis‑management architecture and underscored Washington’s enduring influence over both rivals.
💼 Trump’s Tariffs Upend Export‑Driven Economies
The global economic shock of 2025 came from Washington. President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on all U.S. trading partners, linking market access to labor, migration, and strategic concessions.
For South Asia — where the U.S. is a top export destination — the impact was immediate:
Bangladesh & Sri Lanka were hit hardest, with garment exports facing tariffs of around 20 percent.
India faced a broader challenge: tariffs, H‑1B restrictions, remittance pressures, and energy import curbs undermined its belief that strategic alignment with Washington offered economic protection.
Pakistan, ironically, benefited from renewed U.S. strategic interest following the India–Pakistan crisis.
The shock shattered a core assumption of the post‑1990s era: that globalization and export‑led growth would remain insulated from geopolitics.
🌐 Strategic Volatility: U.S. Unpredictability, China’s Steady Hand
Trump’s policies injected volatility into South Asia’s strategic environment. India’s early optimism about Trump 2.0 evaporated as tariffs and sanctions mounted. Pakistan, meanwhile, enjoyed unexpected diplomatic goodwill.
Smaller states — Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh — responded by hedging more aggressively, deepening ties with China, and seeking greater economic autonomy.
China, for its part, maintained steady engagement through infrastructure investment and diplomatic restraint, reinforcing its image as a predictable partner in a turbulent year.
🌊 Climate Disasters Expose Fragile State Capacity
Climate change was not a background factor — it was a central driver of instability.
The most dramatic example was Cyclone Ditwah, which struck Sri Lanka in November:
13 billion cubic meters of rainfall in 24 hours
All 25 districts affected
Over 2 million displaced
More than 100,000 homes damaged
$4.1 billion in economic losses
The disaster tested the new NPP government and exposed the limits of a state weakened by austerity.
Across the region, climate shocks are becoming structural:
Bangladesh faces rising seas and cyclone threats to export zones
Pakistan suffers from floods and heatwaves
India confronts worsening water scarcity and inter‑state tensions
Climate resilience is now inseparable from political legitimacy.
🌴 Maldives: A Small State Navigates Big‑Power Tensions
Despite early fears of a geopolitical showdown, the Maldives managed to stabilize relations with India by year’s end. President Mohamed Muizzu balanced ties with China while avoiding provocations that could alarm New Delhi.
Climate diplomacy — especially financing and adaptation — became central to Malé’s foreign policy, reframing partnerships around survival rather than alignment.
🕌 Afghanistan: Old Assumptions Collapse
One of the quieter but strategically significant shifts of 2025 was the deterioration of Pakistan–Taliban relations. Rising militant attacks and cross‑border tensions shattered Islamabad’s long‑held belief that a Taliban‑run Afghanistan would secure its western flank.
India, meanwhile, cautiously expanded humanitarian engagement with Kabul, gaining unexpected diplomatic space.
🧭 A Region at a Crossroads
As 2025 ended, South Asia faced a stark set of challenges:
Political systems struggling to absorb popular demands
A more dangerous India–Pakistan deterrence environment
Export‑dependent economies squeezed by protectionism
Climate shocks accelerating faster than state capacity
The year revealed extraordinary political energy — especially among young people — but also the persistence of patronage, intolerance, and mistrust.
Unless South Asian governments pursue deeper democratic reforms, inclusive economic strategies, climate resilience, and credible crisis‑management mechanisms, the shocks of 2025 may become the region’s new normal.
